Warning by World Bank: Unutilized Demographic Dividend in South Asia
1: Introduction and Overview of the Issue
- The World Bank, according to the "Jobs for Resilience, South Asia Development Update" report, has raised concern that South Asia, inclusive of India, is not effectively exploiting its demographic dividend.
- Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential resulting from a change in a population's age structure. It is especially pertinent when the majority of a population is working-age individuals.
- India is projected to reap this demographic dividend for 37 years, from 2018 to 2055, provided appropriate harnessing of this human capital potential.
2: Issues in Harnessing Demographic Dividends
- Jobless Growth: South Asian countries are grappling with jobless growth, with an employment ratio of just 59% in 2023.
- Low Private Investment: Economic growth driven primarily by public investment, with private investment on the decline, holds back sustainable economic development and job creation.
- Global Growth Slowdown: Slowing global growth presents challenges due to potential trade, investment, and economic repercussions.
- Risks: Geopolitical tensions, climate change, and pandemics pose additional hurdles to effectively utilising the demographic dividend.
3: Challenges Specific to India
- Poor Skill Development: India struggles with low employability among graduates, with a mere 20-30% of engineers securing jobs suited to their skill-set.
- Low Human Development Index: Lower life expectancy and education levels put India at disadvantage on the UNDP Human Development Index.
- Sizeable Informal Economy: A whopping 216 million Indians are part of the informal economy, dealing with low wages, limited social security, and irregular employment.
- Regional Disparity in Demography: Surge in the working-age population is concentrated in some of India's poorest states, so employment opportunities generated should be meaningful.
- Shrinking Female Labor Force: India faces a hurdle with a declining female labour force participation rate, hindering the country's ability to fully utilise its workforce.
- Psycho-social Issues: India ranks high for suicide rates and drug abuse amongst youth, potentially contributing to overall societal instability.
4: World Bank's Proposed Measures to Improve Utilization of Demographic Dividend
- Enhance Trade Openness: Reducing barriers to global trade could encourage economic growth and job creation.
- Adopt Flexible Labour Laws and Efficient Land Markets: This could augment business competitiveness, attract investment, and boost job growth.
- Investing in Infrastructure: Investment in sectors like transportation and agriculture could bolster productivity, competitiveness, and job opportunities.
- Encourage Female Labor Force Participation: Wage subsidies, tax benefits, and work-life balance initiatives could boost female labour participation.
- Improve Human Capital: Skill development programs may facilitate the transition of workers from agriculture to non-agriculture sectors, boosting productivity and economic diversification.
5: Additional Measures to Boost Demographic Dividend
- Increase Healthcare Investments: A healthy workforce contributes to a productive workforce.
- Reform Informal Sector: Streamlining regulations, providing credit access could contribute to sector reforms.
- Invest in Latest Technology: Supporting R&D in emerging fields could harness the potential of demographic transition.
- Manage Urbanisation: Young people moving into urban areas necessitates planning for amenities and services.
- Enhance Social Security: A mere 4% of Indians are under any form of social protection, lagging behind even Bangladesh, indicating the need for effectively broadening the social security net.
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